| FY4A对流初生产品在上海地区强对流天气监测预报预警中的应用效果分析 |
| 投稿时间：2021-12-17 修订日期：2022-01-21 点此下载全文 |
| 引用本文：郭巍,顾问,崔林丽.FY4A对流初生产品在上海地区强对流天气监测预报预警中的应用效果分析[J].红外,2022,43(6):42~48 |
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| 中文摘要:综合利用FY4A卫星强对流监测产品、中尺度数值预报以及地面常规观测资料，对2018～2019年汛期上海地区的强对流天气过程的对流初生、对流落区、对流监测进行了综合研判，并分析了不同卫星产品在短时强对流天气预警中的作用。结果表明：(1) FY4A卫星的对流初生产品与高灵敏度雷达监测局地对流的水平不相上下。个别天气过程中对流预报的时效性可高于雷达探测结果，且对流初生的预报位置与对流发生的实际位置在空间分布和形态上都比较接近。基于云顶变温，对流初生产品还可以预判对流发展和减弱趋势。(2)FY4A闪电事件产品与对流初生产品在时间和落区上有很好的一致性。FY4A闪电事件观测主要集中在对流初生和对流增强的阶段，对对流预报有一定的指示意义。(3)基于FY4A卫星的相关产品，结合中尺度数值预报以及地面常规观测资料来进行短临天气的智能分析，可以有效弥补常规观测资料的缺失，并在对流初生、对流落区、对流监测中有很好的指示作用，从而提高短临强对流天气的预警效率。 |
| 中文关键词:FY4A 对流初生 闪电 |
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| Analysis of The Application Effect of FY4A Convective Initiation Product on Monitoring and Forecasting Strong Convective Weather in Shanghai |
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| Abstract:The convective initiation, convective flow area, and convective monitoring of the strong convective weather process in Shanghai during the flood season of 2018-2019 are comprehensively analyzed based on strong convective monitoring products, mesoscale numerical forecasts and conventional ground-based observations on the FY4A satellite. The effects of different satellite products in the severe convective weather warnings are also analyzed. The results show that: (1) the convective incipient product of the FY4A satellite is comparable to high-sensitivity radar in the monitoring of local convection. In some weather processes, the timeliness of convective prediction is higher than that of radar detection, and the predicted location of convective initiation is close to the actual location of convective initiation in spatial distribution and morphology. Based on the cloud top temperature change, convection incipient products can also predict the development and weakening trend of convection. (2) The FY4A lightning product and the convection incipient product have a good consistency in both time and fall area. FY4A lightning observation mainly focuses on the convective initiation and convective intensification, which has certain indicative significance for convective prediction. (3) The combination of relevant products on FY4A satellite, mesoscale numerical forecasts and ground routine observation data can be used for the intelligent analysis of short-term weather, and effectively make up for the lack of routine observation data. It also acts as a good indicator in the initial convection, convection area and convection monitoring so as to improve the efficiency of short strong convective weather warning |
| keywords:FY4A convective initiation lightning |
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