A correlation model between dynamic test data of infrared characteristics of target and calculation of target operating distance is established theoretically, and a general method of predicting operating distance based on test data is given. As an application, the infrared radiation characteristics of a certain target are dynamically tested by the ground-based large-aperture infrared measurement system in the outfield. The infrared radiation characteristics of the target in both the front and rear directions and the atmospheric transmittance along the tracking path are obtained. The operating distances of different-aperture infrared systems are predicted, and the calculation results are analyzed. The method given here provides a way for researching the prediction of operating distance based on real test data of the target.